The "2025 China High-Precision Positioning Technology Industry White Paper" produced by AIoT Star Map Research Institute will be released online for free on March 20. For online reservations, please see the poster at the end of the article.
In this latest white paper, we summarize the latest trends and predictions of UWB technology. The details are as follows:
01 In the AI era, UWB technology will have more opportunities
The concept of AI has been popular for several rounds, but in the past one or two years, we have really seen that AI is changing our daily lives. In the field of IoT, it is also experiencing the transformation of AI+IoT.
In the past, IoT was more of a concept that focused on connection, but in the AIoT era, we believe that it will focus on the value of data and solving scene problems.
In recent months, companies in the stock market that are engaged in Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, cellular and other communication chips and modules have performed well. But we think that UWB can actually benefit more from AI. Because connection technologies such as Wi-Fi and Bluetooth cannot do too many business functions, because they have no perception capabilities or are very weak, and additional sensors are needed to have data perception capabilities.
In addition to being a connection technology, UWB itself also has accurate location perception capabilities and good radar perception capabilities. Based on such perception capabilities, many capabilities can be achieved even without external sensors, such as finding children, pets, objects or radar detection. These common UWB scenarios can solve more problems after adding AI.
02 Domestic UWB chips are already quite competitive, and there will be a reshuffle in the next 1-2 years
In the previous version, we saw that the rise of domestic UWB chip players is unstoppable. In fact, this is also true. We have no doubt that domestic UWB chip players will occupy the mainstream in this market in the future, but the problem is that in recent years, there are too many companies that have entered the UWB chip market.
Therefore, we judge that there will be a reshuffle period in the UWB chip track in the next few years, and the companies that can stand out from it need to meet the following conditions:
First: companies whose products have been made and have been verified by the market in small batches in the past one or two years.
Second: companies with sufficient funds.
Third: companies that are sensitive to the market and can respond quickly.
Fourth: UWB chip companies with channel resources.
Fifth: companies that can make differentiated layouts in advance and have good luck and bet on the right market.
03 UWB radar perception capability will become more and more important
Although UWB is well known to the public as a precise positioning and ranging technology, we believe that UWB's radar perception capability will become more and more important in the future. The main logic is:
First, the general background, the evolution direction of communication technology is "communication + perception" integration.
Second, position perception and radar perception are both common perception data, and UWB happens to take both into account. In the AI era, products will become more and more intelligent.
Third, it is very cost-effective.
04 UWB's communication capability will become more and more important
From the current industrial evolution, UWB's communication transmission capability is also becoming more and more important, and its logic also has two levels.
First, similar to the logic of radar, UWB's communication capability is a multiplexing capability, because positioning perception and radar perception are a kind of sensor capability, and the perceived data needs to be transmitted and interacted. If other communication technologies are required for transmission, it will inevitably bring new costs. UWB's "inter-sensory integration" capability can save a lot of costs.
Second, UWB itself has excellent communication capabilities. As a communication technology, UWB has the characteristics of high bandwidth, low latency, and good security.
05 UWB and Bluetooth will become the two basic connection technologies for IoT devices, and will be standard for mobile phones, cars, and IoT in the future
According to the latest market trends, we have seen that the interaction and integration between the three major products of "mobile phones, cars, and IoT" is an obvious trend, and to achieve such interaction, a universal connection technology is required. BLE and UWB will become two basic connection technologies.
06 There will be more and more UWB+BLE Combo products
Based on the logic that UWB and Bluetooth will be the standard configuration of "mobile phones, cars, and IoT" in the previous article, we predict that the "UWB+BLE" Combo products in the market will gradually become mainstream in the future. Since these devices require these two types of technologies, it is definitely the most economical to combine two chips into one chip.
At present, some domestic UWB chip players have already released "UWB+BLE" Combo chips, and according to our understanding, there are more UWB chip manufacturers who have also planned such Combo solutions in the next generation of products.
07 In 2025, we will see domestic mainstream mobile phone manufacturers using UWB chips on a large scale
In Q1 2024, Qualcomm released the "UWB+Bluetooth+Wi-Fi" three-in-one chip. At that time, the industry predicted that this chip would be used in the new wave of new machines in the second half of 2024. In fact, it did not. Only Huawei implanted UWB chips in some high-end models (using domestic chips). The main reason may be that this chip is not very mature, and there are not many scenarios for UWB use.
But we can predict with certainty that in the new wave of new machines in the second half of 2025, we will see UWB enter these mobile phones. The main reason is that we have seen that UWB digital car keys are rapidly popularizing, and scenarios such as UWB gates are also being commercialized.
08 In 2024, the shipment volume of domestic automobile brands with UWB car keys reached 1 million, and it will at least double in 2025
According to our statistics, in 2024, among domestic automobile brands alone, the sales volume of cars with UWB digital car keys is about 1 million, and this number does not include overseas automobile brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Tesla that have already used UWB technology on a large scale.
It is expected that in 2025, we will see more models using UWB digital car keys. Conservatively estimated, this number will double in 2025.
09 In the enterprise market, UWB solution providers have gradually deepened their industry and have their own industry attributes
This trend continues our prediction last year. This year, we have seen more and more UWB solution providers have clearer industry margins for business planning. Because to do a good job in the B-end market, you need to go deep to provide more value to customers, and going deep requires a long period and great energy. For most solution providers, it is very good to be able to do well in one or two vertical industries. If you happen to choose the right industry, you can even incubate a listed company-sized enterprise.
10 UWB chip products have a clear demand for low power consumption trend
In battery-powered products, low power consumption is an absolute pain point demand. At present, the power consumption of UWB chip products is relatively large, which is not conducive to the popularization of technology. Whether it is UWB-Beacon or tag products on the B-end, or Tags and other products on the C-end, they have high requirements for battery life.
Based on this clear demand, we can make a prediction: Among so many domestic UWB chip players, the ones who can stand out in the future will definitely be the best companies in terms of power consumption.
11 UWB-Beacon will gradually replace Bluetooth Beacon products
UWB-Beacon combines the characteristics of Bluetooth Beacon's easy installation and deployment, but the positioning accuracy is much higher. In addition, the working distance of UWB-Beacon is at least twice that of Bluetooth Beacon, which means that the number of UWB-Beacon covering the same area is 1/4 of that of Bluetooth Beacon. According to the price of Bluetooth Beacon, the price of UWB-Beacon is less than 300, and the hardware deployment cost of the two is almost the same. This price is completely achievable, so we predict that the proportion of UWB-Beacon will gradually increase in the future.
This paper is from Ulink Media, Shenzhen, China, the organizer of IOTE EXPO (IoT Expo in China)
