The main application scenario of Bluetooth Beacon positioning products in recent years is chemical plants, because a few years ago, the Ministry of Emergency Management issued policies related to the positioning management of chemical plant personnel. The strong promotion of the policy directly stimulated the large-scale implementation of personnel positioning systems in this scenario.
The reason why the Bluetooth Beacon solution can become the mainstream of this market is that it has the cheapest price on the basis of not too bad positioning accuracy.
However, through our recent research information of "China High-Precision Positioning Technology Industry White Paper 2025", it is found that the shipment volume of Bluetooth Beacon products in chemical plants may be a peak in 2024. Starting from 2025, Bluetooth Beacon in this market may begin to decline.
01 Bluetooth Beacon Market Volume
We estimate that the entire Bluetooth Beacon market is expected to reach its peak in 2024, with overall shipments reaching 10.5 million PCS. In the chemical plant scenario, the volume in 2023 is 350 PCS (Beacon + tag), and the volume in 2024 reaches 600 PCS (Beacon + tag), of which the volume of Beacon is about twice the volume of tag. According to this ratio, in 2024, the total shipment of Bluetooth Beacon products in the domestic chemical plant scenario will be about 4 million PCS.
Because chemical plant scenarios account for the absolute majority of Bluetooth Beacon applications, when the chemical plant market begins to decline, the overall Bluetooth Beacon market also begins to decline.
02 Market penetration has basically reached the top
There is no authoritative number about how many chemical plants in China need to use personnel positioning systems, because not all chemical plants belong to "high-risk" scenarios. According to the information we have surveyed, there are about 30,000 to 50,000 chemical plants with high-risk production environments that need to use personnel positioning systems.
This volume is not small, but with the support of red-headed documents, the market penetration rate has increased rapidly in recent years. It is expected that in 2024, major chemical plants will basically have personnel positioning systems.
Of course, even if the market penetration rate reaches 100%, the market will not disappear. The future market mainly comes from two sources:
The first is the equipment iteration market. Chemical plant products require explosion-proof certification, and the validity period of explosion-proof certification is 5 years. Therefore, in theory, the equipment in this market needs to be replaced every 5 years at most. In fact, if the battery capacity of Bluetooth Beacon products is not large, it may start to run out of power in 2-3 years, and the replacement market volume is also considerable.
The second is the incremental market. In addition to the personnel positioning system in chemical plants in high-risk environments, more chemical plants are currently using personnel positioning systems, such as clothing industry and trade, cosmetics, etc. These scenarios will unlock the incremental market.
03 UWB-Beacon solution may form a substitute
According to the above logic, when the chemical plant market reaches the top, because there are iterative markets and incremental markets, even if Bluetooth Beacon declines, the subsequent trend should be relatively smooth. The reason for the expectation of continued decline, in our opinion, is mainly because UWB-Beacon products are gradually maturing and will form a substitute in this market.
In fact, according to our research, the first party of chemical plants is often not satisfied with the accuracy of Bluetooth Beacon's personnel positioning solution. The core reason why they choose it even though they are not satisfied is that it is cheap.
The logic that UWB-Beacon can replace in this market is as follows:
First, it has high accuracy. Although it cannot reach the centimeter-level accuracy under ideal conditions, the accuracy of 0.5-1m is generally no problem. This accuracy is sufficient for electronic fences and trajectory tracking in practical scenarios.
Second, it is easy to install. It is very troublesome to construct high-risk chemical scenes. Some scenes do not allow construction. Even if construction is allowed, professional qualifications and factory schedules are required. UWB-Beacon products are the same as Bluetooth Beacon. They do not require weak current construction. The base station can be attached to the wall. This point is also very important for chemical plants.
Third, the product is gradually mature. In recent years, mainstream UWB solution providers in the market have been making UWB-Beacon products. Even Bluetooth Beacon manufacturers are actively making UWB-Beacon products. Downlink TDOA UWB-Beacon products are also gradually maturing. In addition, there is battery life. Because this scenario requires a 5-year battery life, solution providers increase the battery capacity, such as increasing it to 79000mAh, and reduce the overall power consumption through algorithms, etc., basically the battery life can be more than 5 years.
Fourth, it is cost optimization, which is the most critical. Of course, UWB-Beacon will definitely be more expensive than Bluetooth Beacon. After all, the BOM cost is there, but Bluetooth Beacon is generally installed every 5-8m, while UWB-Beacon can be installed every 20-30m, so even the price of UWB-Beacon is 5-6 times the price of Bluetooth Beacon. The overall project price is similar, so we think that the unit price of UWB-Beacon is 300 yuan, which is a relatively important threshold. When this price is reached, the UWB-Beacon solution will not be much more expensive than the Bluetooth Beacon solution.
The current unit price of UWB-Beacon in the market is more than 500 yuan. If there is a large volume, I believe this price can be reached soon.
This paper is from Ulink Media, Shenzhen, China, the organizer of IOTE EXPO (IoT Expo in China)
